Copper Consumption China
From IntFX
China is a large importer of Copper concentrate in the world, sourcing most of its supplies from South America, Mongolia and Australia. The United States consumes 12% of global copper production per annum. China consumes 20% of worldwide production per annum. Developing countries growth in demand is expected to more than offset the decline in the western world.
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[edit] 2007 to 2008
China's refined copper imports in December 2007 rose 17% on year to 111,685 metric tons. The country imported 383,604 tons of copper concentrate imports, up 4.4% on year. Full year imports of refined copper totaled 1.49 million tons, up 81% on year, while copper concentrate imports in 2007 totaled 4.52 million tons, up 25% on year. [1].
Another analyst estimates that China's net copper imports amounted to 1.358 million tonnes in 2007, a twofold increase from 580,000 tonnes in 2006[2].
China's copper consumption in 2008 is estimated at 5.13 million tonnes, up 8.1% from last year. The global copper market is estimated to be in slight surplus this year, with copper output due to hit 19.1 million tonnes, and consumption estimated to reach 18.98 million tonnes[3].
[edit] Supply and Demand Factors
Copper smelters, including Huludao Nonferrous Metals Group and Bayin Nonferrous Metals, have already cut production, as the low TC/RC charge has slashed profits for those companies that depend on imports for production.
Although investment in many new mines started from 2003, it is believed that it will be at least 2009 until concentrate output peaks. One analyst predicts that copper prices in Shanghai will fluctuate between RMB 50,000 ($6,887.24) per tonne and RMB 65,000 ($8,953.41) per tonne in 2008, while London Metal Exchange copper prices will move between $6,000 per tonne and $8,000 per tonne. [4]
Shortages include vehicle tire shortages in Africa, water shortages in Chile, and power shortages in Zambia[5].
Worldwide demand is expected to decrease slightly due to the US subprime crisis effect on world growth and the tightening of China's policies, however this is offset by raw material tightness.
[edit] ICSG Data
ICSG: Preliminary Data for October can be found at http://www.metalsinsider.com/uploads/icsg_20080121.pdf
[edit] External References
- ↑ http://www.commodityonline.com/research_details.php?rpt_id=4960
- ↑ Shen, Maike Futures
- ↑ http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=39673
- ↑ Pang Ying, Rongtop Trading
- ↑ http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWEB268720080122
