EU Emission
From IntFX
Contents |
[edit] Overview
CARBON CREDITS – A MARKET OF THE 21st CENTURY
With growing concerns among nations to curb pollution levels while maintaining the growth in their economic activities, the emission trading (ET) industry has come to life. And, with the increasing ratification of Kyoto Protocol (KP) by countries and rising social accountability of polluting industries in the developed nations, the carbon emissions trading is likely to emerge as a multibillion-dollar market in global emissions trading. The recent surge in carbon credits trading activities in Europe is an indication of how the emissions trading industry is going to pan out in the years to come.
What is a carbon credit?
Simply put, one carbon credit is equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide or its equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG). Carbon credits are “Entitlement Certificates” issued by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to the implementers of the approved Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. The potential buyers of carbon credits shall be corporates in various Annexure I countries that need to meet the compliance prevailing in their countries as per the Kyoto Protocol or those investors who would like buy the credits and with the expectation of selling them at a higher price during the KP phase (2008-12). The extension of KP shall be ratified by the current signatories of KP in their future meetings essentially to curb GHG emissions into the environment.[1]
[edit] Supply/Demand
Sources of demand & supply
Emerging carbon credit markets offer enormous opportunities for the upcoming manufacturing/public utility projects to employ a range of energy saving devices or any other mechanisms or technology to reduce GHG emissions and earn carbon credits to be sold at a price. The carbon credits can be either generated by project participants who acquire carbon credits through implementation of CDM in Non Annexure I countries or through Joint Implementation (JI) in Annexure I countries or supplied into the market by those who got surplus allowances with them. The buyers of carbon credits are principally from Annexure I countries. They are:
- Especially European nations, as currently European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the most active market;
- Other markets include Japan, Canada, New Zealand, etc.
The major sources of supply are Non-Annexure I countries such as India, China, and Brazil.
[edit] Trading In Carbon Credits
Emissions trading (ET) is a mechanism that enables countries with legally binding emissions targets to buy and sell emissions allowances among themselves. Currently, futures contracts in carbon credits are actively traded in the European exchanges. In fact, many companies actively participate in the futures market to manage the price risks associated with trading in carbon credits and other related risks such as project risk, policy risk, etc. Keeping in view the various risks associated with carbon credits, trading in futures contracts in carbon allowances has now become a reality in Europe with burgeoning volumes. Currently, project participants, public utilities, manufacturing entities, brokers, banks, and others actively participate in futures trading in environment-related instruments. The European Climate Exchange (ECX), a subsidiary of Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), remains the leading exchange trading in European environmental instruments that are listed on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), previously known as International Petroleum Exchange (IPE).
[edit] Price influencing factors
In Non-Annexure B countries (the developing countries) across the world, CER prices are influenced by various factors including EUA prices, crude oil prices, electricity, coal, natural gas, the level of economic activities across Annexure I countries, among others
[edit] Major price influencing factors:
- Supply-demand mismatch
- Policy issues
- Crude oil prices
- Coal prices
- CO2 emissions
- Weather/Fuel prices
- European Union Allowances (EUAs) prices
- Foreign exchange fluctuations
- Global economic growth
[edit] Risks associated with carbon credits
The coming into being and operation of the EU-ETS, the ECX futures exchange platform, revealed that there are market- and policy-related risks for CER producers, including the supply-side risks starting from the DNA approval risk to the CER issuance risk in a complete CDM approval cycle. Apart from these risks there are a host of other risks from both the supply and demand sides that the real market players confront with.
Most CDM projects by their very nature take a long time to generate the CERs and hence, face the aforesaid risks in large proportion, which if not hedged would lead to reduced realization. Under such a situation, the realization of CER generators at times may not even cover the investment put in to generate the CERs and thus, has the potential of even making a CDM project unviable in the long term. Given the long gestation period of CDM projects and the risks involved, it is rather inevitable that they pre-sell their potential credits in the futures market (preferably a domestic futures market, to avoid forex risk attached to participation in a foreign exchange) and thereby, cover their probable downside in the physical market. [2] </ref>
