Lead
From IntFX
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[edit] Overview
Lead is a soft, heavy, toxic and malleable poor metal, lead is bluish white when freshly cut, but tarnishes to dull gray when exposed to air. Lead is used in building construction, lead-acid batteries, bullets and shot, weights, and is part of solder, pewter, and fusible alloys. Lead has the highest atomic number of all stable elements, although the next element, bismuth, has a half-life so long (longer than the estimated age of the universe) it can be considered stable. Like mercury, another heavy metal, lead is a potent neurotoxin that accumulates in soft tissues and bone over time.
[edit] Applications
Lead is one of the most used metals in industry, being just surpassed by other metals as iron, copper, zinc and aluminum. The main application of lead and of its oxide (PbO) is producing electrical batteries for vehicles.
Lead alloys are largely used in industry. The addition of a small percentage of arsenic, or antimony, to the lead, increases its hardness and mechanical resistance, protecting it from abrasion. The calcium-lead and the tin-lead alloys are used in coating certain electrical cables.
Current solder is a lead-tin alloy, in variable proportions in agreement with the requested melting point. The bismuth, cadmium or mercury addition can also affect the melting point of solder.
Lead is also used in remote access power systems and load levelling systems as well as in compounds in the glass and plastics industries and for radiation shielding. Average end use patterns over the last five years are illustrated in chart.[1]
[edit] Supply and Demand
- World lead mine production over the first ten months of 2007 was 4% higher than the corresponding period of 2006. This was primarily due to increases China, India, Macedonia, Peru and Sweden which more than balanced falls in Australia, Canada, Iran and Mexico.
- A rise in global refined lead metal production of 3.1% was influenced largely by increases in China, Germany, India, Italy, Kazakhstan, the Republic of Korea and the United States.
- Despite reductions in Europe (-1.5%), Japan (-12%) and the United States (-2.1%), global demand for refined lead metal rose by 2.7%. This was largely a consequence of a further strong growth (18.8%) in China.
- Chinese net exports of refined lead metal for the period January to October 2007 totalled 174,000 tonnes compared to 407,000 tonnes over the first ten months of 2006.
- Total reported stocks of refined lead metal amounted to 264,000 tonnes at the end of October, 19,000 tonnes lower than at the beginning of the year.
[edit] Price Structure
The rise in lead prices since 2001, has been more to do with supply shortages than buoyant demand.
Lead, which is a major cost ingredient of a battery, has been increasing in price dramatically on the world market since 2006. Since that time lead has increased a staggering 300% in value and continues to climb with no sign of relief in sight. Lead has always been a relatively stable commodity on the world market, and the price increase trend is forcing all manufacturers and resellers to constantly review their prices.
Lead, as with many other metals, is bought and sold on the London Metal Exchange $US per tonne. Until 2006, lead prices appeared to be steadily tracking at US$1,000-i ,200 per tonne. During the 12 months between July 2006 and July 2007 the metal increased dramatically and recently smashed through US$3,000 per tonne for the first time ever.
Lead prices increased by a dramatic 300% between July 2006 and July 2007, placing pressure on the Australian battery industry and resulting in higher battery prices for motorists. [2]
[edit] Price forecast
Prices have been very volatile because concerns about supply generated a 105% increase to an average $1.17/lb on the LME from 57¢ in 2006. Consumption increased by 4% last year but that was barely matched by a 4% growth in supply so that second-half mining and smelting problems in Western Australia and reduced exports by China created a global deficit of 130,000 net tons. This year, a slowing global economy and fewer new cars sold in the U.S., Canada and the European Union should negatively impact lead demand and offset possible continued tight supply. The consensus lead price forecast is 99¢/lb this year, though, because the world's biggest refined lead producer, China, will continue to reduce exports due to its imposition of a 10% export tax.[3]
For lead, an average price of 2,032 usd a tonne is forecast for this year compared to only 841 usd by 2010, while for zinc the forecasts stand at 3,552 usd a tonne and 1,682 usd, respectively.[4]
- UBS has updated its forecast for Lead, now it is forecasting lead at $1.20 per pound.
[edit] China Consumption
China's lead consumption may rise by nearly 10 percent in 2007 on the back of soaring vehicle sales. This comes despite pollution-cutting restrictions on battery-powered bicycles and motorcycles. The price of lead rose 58 percent last year on the London Metal Exchange. Alongside fears of raw material shortages, an analyst at China's state-owned research group, Antaike, predicted that national lead consumption would rise by more than 200,000 tonnes in 2007. China produced more than 10 million electric bicycles in 2005, up 30 percent on 2004. Each bicycle uses about 7.5 kilograms of lead, compared with 9kg for a passenger car battery.
