Nickel
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[edit] Nickel
Nickel is a silvery white metal that takes on a high polish. It belongs to the transition metals, and is hard and ductile. It occurs most usually in combination with sulfur and iron in pentlandite, with sulfur in millerite, with arsenic in the mineral nickeline, and with arsenic and sulfur in nickel glance.[1]
[edit] General uses
About 65 per cet of nickel is used to manufacture stainless steels, and 20 per cent in other steel and non-ferrous (including "super") alloys, often for highly specialized industrial, aerospace and military applications. About 9 per cent is used in plating and 6 per cent in other uses including coins and a variety of nickel chemicals.[2]
[edit] Pricing structure
The price of nickel has experienced volatility over the last twenty years. In the first half of the 1990s the economic collapse of the former "Eastern Bloc" countries resulted in a surge of nickel exports that drove nickel prices lower than the cash costs of production resulting in reduced nickel production in the "West". Until 2003 the nickel cash price remained below US$10000 per tonne. The price breached $14000 per tonne in 2005 and then escalated dramatically through 2006 before peaking at an average of $52179 per tonne in May 2007. World nickel usage in 2006 stood 16 per cent above the level recorded during the price trough of 2001 and climbed further in the first half of 2007 thanks to buoyant Chinese demand. The nickel market registered a deficit of about 44000 tonnes in 2006, but this cannot explain the degree of price escalation experienced through 2007. The collapse of the nickel cash price to an average of $27652 in August 2007 would seem to indicate that speculative investment as well as strong market fundamentals played a part in the price bubble. [3]
[edit] Current consumption trends
Nickel demand in Europe decreased in the period 2002-2005 before recovering in 2006. In the Americas demand fell between 2002 and 2003 before growth resumed in 2004. Nickel demand increased strongly in Asia throughout the same period and stood 35% higher in 2006 than in 2002 thanks to rapid increase in Chinese nickel usage. Nickel demand is expected to continue to rise by 2-3% per annum.[4]
[edit] Price forecasts
Dow Jones lists forecasts from poll it conducted on average price of nickel for 2008.
- Macquarie - $12.50/lb
- Commerzbank - $11.14/lb
- BaseMetal dot com - $10.89/lb
- BNP Paribas - $11.34/lb
- Triland - $13.61/lb
- Standard Bank - $13.23/lb
- UBS - $13.25/lb
- Lehman Brothers - $13.00/lb
- Deutsche - $13.44/lb
- Barclays Capital - $13.55/lb
- SocGen - $13.15/lb
- JP Morgan - $13.15/lb
- Goldman Sachs - $11.45/lb
- Citibank - $10.00/lb
- Standard Chartered - $11.79/lb
- Average of all analysts = $12.37/lb[6]
[edit] Major producers
In 2006 world primary production stood 14% higher than in 2002. In Europe, expansion in production was registered in Russia and Norway. In Oceania, Australia and New Caledonia experienced a decline in primary nickel production while Japanese primary nickel production also declined in both 2005 and 2006. Although world nickel production looks likely to recede in 2007 compared with 2006, further expansions by existing producers mainly in China, Canada and Russia indicate that a nickel production increase looks likely for 2008.[7]
[edit] External References
- ↑ http://periodic.lanl.gov/elements/28.html
- ↑ http://www.insg.org/whatnickel.aspx
- ↑ http://www.insg.org/prodnickel.aspx
- ↑ http://www.insg.org/prodnickel.aspx
- ↑ http://www.enickel.co.uk/Investor-Relations/Nickel-Market
- ↑ http://www.estainlesssteel.com/zmetalsandstockcharts.shtml
- ↑ http://www.insg.org/prodnickel.aspx
